Hormuz Traffic Will NOT Drop to Near-Zero — Sell the Disruption Fantasy

Kalshi has vessel transit calls above 30 per day through Hormuz priced at just 0.5% — implying near-certain total closure. But complete Hormuz blockades are historically rare and operationally difficult; even during peak Iran-Iraq war tanker attacks traffic continued. The thesis-implied probability of 80-85% for >30 transits (and even >1-3 transits) reflects base reality. Simultaneously, buy the >1 daily transit NO market — 99.5% for YES at >1 transit is actually correct, providing no edge, but the >30 transit YES at 0.5% offers 84 cents of edge. This is a structural mispricing from an extreme scenario being massively over-discounted.