Hormuz Warship Transit Massively Mispriced at 12% — Buy Now
Polymarket has US warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 at just 12.5% while the edge model implies 90-95% probability. With US-Iran invasion odds at 56%, oil surging 12% in a single session, and the US military's standard posture of naval presence in the Gulf, this is an extraordinary mismatch. Buy YES aggressively — the base rate of US naval activity through Hormuz alone justifies 80%+ pricing. This is the highest-edge opportunity in the dataset with 77-82 cents of executable edge.
US-Iran tensions escalating with invasion odds at 56%; standard US 5th Fleet operations provide near-certain transit activity by April 30
Markets may be interpreting 'warships' or 'transit' with a specific definitional threshold that excludes routine naval patrols, making resolution criteria the key risk.
Referenced Markets
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: United States
loading…US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 30
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