Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1626% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.9% on the No side, suggesting either severe underpricing of Kotsev or significant tail risk being priced in by contrarian bettors. The 9¢ price has climbed 2 cents over seven days with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 3¢ spread, indicating illiquidity and potential stale pricing rather than active conviction. With 227 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 10, this appears to be a speculative long-shot position where the extreme yield reflects both low probability and the difficulty of exiting a thinly-traded contract.

Resolution rules

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

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