Will Austin Sidwell be the Republican nominee for AL-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Austin Sidwell be the Republican nominee for AL-01?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with Sidwell's probability collapsing from 39¢ to 6¢ over seven days—a 85% decline—while the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution explodes to 17,447%, suggesting either a major negative development in his candidacy or a data anomaly.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with Sidwell's probability collapsing from 39¢ to 6¢ over seven days—a 85% decline—while the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution explodes to 17,447%, suggesting either a major negative development in his candidacy or a data anomaly. The 10¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity despite $9.2k open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. With the primary just 33 days away and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this market is approaching resolution uncertainty and should be treated cautiously given the realized volatility of 13,431%.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x01c46a3d84ce0c38bd3b8d06504f175a05b30903fa776b42b157093a9ffd85cb yes 100