Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Democratic contract trading at just 8¢ despite LA-05 being a historically competitive district, implying only an 8% win probability that appears disconnected from fundamentals. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 2092% on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and low confidence in the price, supported by zero 24-hour volume despite $32.7M in open interest, suggesting the market may be stale or dominated by a single large position. With 201 days to expiration and a notable 12 Cliff Risk Index, this represents either a significant misprice opportunity or a liquidity trap where the quoted price may not reflect actual execution levels.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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