Will Stacy Garrity win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor Republican primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest, suggesting the 94¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The astronomical 17,861% implied yield on the "No" side indicates severe mispricing—such yields are mathematically impossible in efficient markets and signal either a data error or that the tiny "No" position is essentially worthless. With only 32 days until resolution and a high Cliff Risk Index of 16, this market is approaching expiry with minimal trading activity, making the 94¢ quote potentially unreliable for serious decision-making.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Pennsylvania, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Pennsylvania Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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