Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will David Burch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. David Burch's Republican Senate nomination odds have collapsed from 4¢ to 3¢ over the past week, reflecting declining market confidence in his candidacy with just 32 days until the May 2026 primary.
Analysis
David Burch's Republican Senate nomination odds have collapsed from 4¢ to 3¢ over the past week, reflecting declining market confidence in his candidacy with just 32 days until the May 2026 primary. The astronomical 36,862.9% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution signals extreme mispricing or illiquidity concerns, particularly given the zero 24-hour volume despite $13.4M in open interest. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and tight 3¢ spread suggest this market may face resolution uncertainty, warranting caution before taking positions at these distressed odds.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x02964c50a45c809fdc3612b757c7c7b202c5b4d894e4b5c3aa2a816e497f9304 yes 100