U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?

This market displays extreme yield asymmetry with a 26,830% implied yield on "Yes" positions versus 262% on "No," suggesting severe underpricing of the binary outcome or heavy skew toward the "No" side among traders. The 9¢ price has declined 2¢ over seven days despite only 14 days to expiration, and the 3,438% realized volatility combined with a 10 Cliff Risk Index indicates this is a highly unstable, low-liquidity market ($16.9M open interest) prone to sharp moves near resolution. With an information arrival rate of 1.8 events per hour and a tight 1¢ spread, traders should be cautious of flash moves, though the neutral regime suggests no clear directional consensus at present.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Regime

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