Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win more than 83.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $754k open interest, creating a dangerously wide 46¢ spread and inflated yield metrics (130% for Yes, 347% for No) that don't reflect true expected returns. The sharp 12¢ price appreciation over seven days combined with high realized volatility (156%) and elevated info arrival rate (1.0/h) suggests recent news flow is driving sentiment, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional bias. With 172 days to expiry and the Pirates' historical performance context needed, traders should be cautious of the illiquidity trap—the 61¢ price may not represent fair value given the minimal trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "O 83.5" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win more than 83.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Pittsburgh Pirates to record more than 83.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 83.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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