Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a staggering 17,758% implied yield on the YES side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of 9-11 Claude outages in April despite the platform's historically high reliability. The sharp 7-point price decline over one week (from 19¢ to 12¢) combined with elevated realized volatility of 686% and a concerning Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates recent negative sentiment, though the modest $825k 24h volume and tight 2¢ spread suggest limited liquidity to support such a dramatic repricing. With only 14 days to expiration, the market is approaching resolution with neutral regime conditions, making this a high-risk binary bet dependent on Claude's operational performance in the final weeks of April.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

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