Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 1,273.6% implied yield on the Yes side against near-zero 24-hour volume and $16.5K open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the 10¢ price rather than genuine probability assessment. The 9/10 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant tail risk concentration, likely reflecting uncertainty about geopolitical escalation scenarios that could dramatically shift probabilities closer to year-end. With 258 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme yield differential signals either substantial mispricing or severe liquidity constraints rather than informed consensus on US military operations.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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