Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only 3% probability for United Russia to win 280-294 seats, yet the asymmetric implied yields (5,615% for Yes vs. 9.7% for No) and massive realized volatility of 1,801% suggest significant uncertainty about the outcome. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days combined with low 24-hour volume of $324 and tight liquidity ($11.6k open interest) indicates thin trading that may not reflect true market consensus on Russia's September 2026 elections. With 156 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Regime

Trade