Will Carson Williams win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Carson Williams win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.4M open interest, creating a massive 64¢ bid-ask spread that inflates the Yes implied yield to an unrealistic 314.3%.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.4M open interest, creating a massive 64¢ bid-ask spread that inflates the Yes implied yield to an unrealistic 314.3%. The 8,124% realized volatility and 18.91 vol ratio indicate highly erratic price discovery, likely driven by sporadic large trades rather than fundamental reassessment of Williams' rookie prospects. With 247 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 32¢ price appears tentative and potentially vulnerable to significant repricing once genuine two-sided trading emerges.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x07ccc3ccabdf8c500008ed8cda3e84bb2d9a208188d88b256dd0e6e0f20a5cbb yes 100