Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?

The market is pricing an extremely low 19% probability for an Iranian strike on Khurais Field with just 14 days to expiry, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 11,322% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry suggesting either severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand. The 7-day price decline from 22¢ to 19¢ combined with thin $7.28 daily volume and elevated realized volatility of 1,402% indicate low liquidity and high uncertainty, making the extreme yield figures potentially unreliable for actual execution. With a Cliff Risk Index of 4 and 4.8 information arrivals per hour, this market is actively monitoring geopolitical developments, but the neutral regime score suggests no imminent escalation signals are currently pricing in.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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