Will the Democrats win the Wyoming governor race in 2026?

This market reflects an extremely low probability for Democratic victory in Wyoming, with the 5¢ price implying just a 5% win chance—unsurprising given Wyoming's deep Republican lean. The astronomical 3,469% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic indicator of illiquidity and extreme mispricing risk; with zero 24-hour volume and only $20,687 in open interest, any actual Democratic momentum could create severe slippage. The 19 Cliff Risk Index score and neutral regime suggest this is a speculative position with limited real-world conviction, making it more suitable for contrarian bettors than mainstream prediction seekers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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