Will the Democratic Party win the NY-09 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in NY-09, with a 94¢ price implying 94% Democratic probability, yet the No side offers an extraordinary 2849.9% implied yield—a massive red flag indicating severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the Republican side. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $33.4M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a stale or illiquid market where the extreme No-side yield may not represent realistic odds but rather a liquidity desert. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in a heavily Democratic district with minimal uncertainty, though the astronomical No-side yield warrants caution about actually executing trades at quoted prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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