Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Connelly Early's odds have collapsed dramatically, dropping from 34¢ to 17¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information about his 2026 prospects or increased competition in the rookie field.
Analysis
Connelly Early's odds have collapsed dramatically, dropping from 34¢ to 17¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information about his 2026 prospects or increased competition in the rookie field. The 722% implied yield on "Yes" combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and a massive 33¢ spread indicates this is an extremely illiquid market where the price may not reflect true probability, with the extreme realized volatility of 7131% reflecting wild swings in a thin order book. With 247 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, the market remains highly speculative and vulnerable to sharp repricing as the 2026 season approaches and Early's actual performance becomes observable.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0aae630de8bc6104076d81549c1ddf1f58fc5219e5181692b2f388d95b7d296d yes 100