Will the Republican Party win the NJ-08 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing at an extreme 6¢ with a staggering 2,849.9% implied yield, reflecting near-zero liquidity ($0 in 24h volume) and a wide 2¢ spread despite $29.7M open interest—this suggests the market is either severely mispriced or illiquid with minimal recent trading activity. NJ-08 is a heavily Democratic district (Biden won it decisively in 2020), making the 6% Republican probability plausible fundamentally, though the astronomical yield and high cliff risk index of 16 indicate extreme sensitivity to any price movement. With over 200 days to expiration and no recent volume, this market appears to be a liquidity trap where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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