What is the current probability for "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1659.3% and 12.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 7/9¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $17,405.143·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x0bbbcca922e19937c88530c715742a6c4c5d951e3e91e2c37d3053ed6e820c81

7-day price9 snapshots · 4 regime

9¢8¢ current

Apr 107¢Apr 19

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1659.3%

IY (No) 12.5%

Adj IY 830%

CRI 12

Overround 1.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1659.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	830%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:00:01 AM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x0bbbcca922e19937c88530c715742a6c4c5d951e3e91e2c37d3053ed6e820c81 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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