Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026.
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23¢Bid/Ask 22/23¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $419.5·OI $20,517.501·Closes Jun 2, 2026·41d remaining
0x0c9ada12c527451fbdd43c0397a8a006b8aaf2a01567ae069d37220b51937595
7-day price232 snapshots · 2 regime
36¢23¢ current
Apr 818¢Apr 21
Cross-venue
Also on kalshi at 55¢(Δ -32¢)
Resolution rules
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:27:33 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM
Trade
View on polymarket →
sf trade 0x0c9ada12c527451fbdd43c0397a8a006b8aaf2a01567ae069d37220b51937595 yes 100