Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?

The market has experienced significant downward price movement over seven days (6¢ to 4¢), suggesting reduced conviction in an Iranian strike on Lebanon within the next two weeks, despite the extraordinarily high implied yield of 63,686% on the "Yes" side reflecting the extreme long-shot odds. With only $2,690 in 24-hour volume against $16.6M open interest and a 3¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin relative to positions held, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades. The elevated realized volatility of 2,031% and cliff risk index of 24 indicate this market remains highly unstable with binary event risk, though the neutral regime score and modest information arrival rate of 0.7/h suggest no imminent catalyst is driving current pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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