Will Eury Perez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

Eury Perez's Cy Young odds have tripled from 2¢ to 6¢ over seven days, suggesting recent positive developments in his career trajectory, though the 9¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate thin liquidity on this long-dated contract expiring in 206 days. The extreme 2777% implied yield on the yes side reflects the massive asymmetry between the 6¢ price and the potential payout, creating a classic lottery-ticket dynamic where small position sizes could yield outsized returns if Perez emerges as a legitimate contender. The elevated realized volatility of 2175% and cliff risk index of 16 warn that this market exhibits high uncertainty and potential for sharp repricing, particularly as we approach the 2026 season when pitcher performance becomes more concrete.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

Trade