Will the Democratic Party win the MI-12 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in MI-12, pricing in a 93% win probability with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume despite $17.4K open interest). The asymmetric implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus 2,425.6% for No—reveal severe liquidity imbalance favoring the Democratic side, creating outsized risk-adjusted returns (1,213%) for contrarian No positions and a notably elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13. With 200 days to expiration and only a 1-cent spread, the market appears to be pricing in a near-certain Democratic hold, though the lack of recent price discovery and extreme No-side yields suggest potential mispricing or insufficient liquidity to test conviction in this outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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