Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with Yes positions offering 4330% implied yield versus 1626% for No, suggesting sharp disagreement about tail risk despite the stable 38¢ price over seven days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with Yes positions offering 4330% implied yield versus 1626% for No, suggesting sharp disagreement about tail risk despite the stable 38¢ price over seven days. With only 14 days to expiry and realized volatility at 347%, the market is pricing in significant binary event risk, though the modest $440 daily volume and $15.3k open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if geopolitical developments emerge. The 1.7 information arrivals per hour and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently balanced but highly sensitive to breaking news regarding Middle Eastern tensions.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (2)▼ Full indicator table (2)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 50000% |
| CRI | 19 |
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0e9713d5dd3893d45e88fb98fd832d6e5bab0ad0b704fee688f273b64331b044 yes 100