Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite moderate open interest of $3,993, with zero 24-hour volume and an 18¢ spread indicating thin order books.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite moderate open interest of $3,993, with zero 24-hour volume and an 18¢ spread indicating thin order books. The price has collapsed 17¢ over seven days (from 74¢ to 57¢), and the astronomical implied yields (862.6% for Yes, 1515.7% for No) suggest severe mispricing or distressed positioning rather than genuine probability assessment. With only 32 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 506%, this appears to be a speculative position market rather than an efficient price discovery mechanism, warranting extreme caution for any new entrants.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Idaho, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Idaho Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x23113e90b800ff9715927c9e361282a5a948eeb145601ca8b1c0ff8f07c05112 yes 100