Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 69¢ shows extreme asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields, with the "No" side offering 404% compared to just 81.6% for "Yes," suggesting significant underpricing of Republican chances despite the Democratic lean. The market exhibits concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume against $7.9M open interest and a realized volatility of 1053%, indicating the 69¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the sharp 16-cent rally over seven days. With 201 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 4.5 events per hour, this appears to be a thin, volatile market where the high yield differential could reflect either genuine Republican upside or simply insufficient liquidity to efficiently price the contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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