Will Progressistas (PP) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?

The Progressistas market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extreme 4063% implied yield on the Yes side. The contract has experienced dramatic volatility (1954% realized), dropping from 9¢ to 5¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information about Brazilian politics or thin-market price discovery issues rather than genuine probability shifts. With only $1,346 in open interest and 171 days to expiration, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where the low price may reflect illiquidity rather than fundamental pessimism about Progressistas' Senate prospects.

Resolution rules

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).

Regime

Trade