Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in an 88% win probability for UT-01, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with a massive 1332% implied yield on the No side versus just 24.8% on the Yes side, suggesting severe underpricing of Republican chances relative to historical Utah voting patterns. With only $10 in 24-hour volume against $9.7M open interest and a 6¢ spread, liquidity is dangerously thin for a market this large, creating potential slippage risks and vulnerability to informed traders. The 132% realized volatility and 7.0 cliff risk index indicate this market is unstable and prone to sharp repricing, particularly given that UT-01 is traditionally Republican territory—the current price may not reflect fundamental district dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade