Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing June 16, 2026. This market shows Mizusawa at even odds (51¢) with extremely high implied yields exceeding 580% on both sides, suggesting severe illiquidity relative to the $18.3k open interest and minimal $166 daily volume.
Analysis
This market shows Mizusawa at even odds (51¢) with extremely high implied yields exceeding 580% on both sides, suggesting severe illiquidity relative to the $18.3k open interest and minimal $166 daily volume. The 192% realized volatility and neutral regime indicate significant uncertainty, though the modest 3¢ spread and steady 48¢-to-51¢ price movement over seven days suggest the market has found a temporary equilibrium despite thin trading. With 60 days to the June 2026 primary and an info arrival rate of 0.8 events per hour, expect material repricing once candidate field clarity emerges or campaign developments occur.
Also on kalshi at 51¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x114ba3133f9949f6a34f75caf515b6eb43eecf19a71958fdb0950f4bd94cf10e yes 100