Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. The 65¢ price on Polymarket represents a significant 5¢ arbitrage gap versus Kalshi's 60¢, suggesting potential mispricing or liquidity constraints on the smaller venue.
Analysis
The 65¢ price on Polymarket represents a significant 5¢ arbitrage gap versus Kalshi's 60¢, suggesting potential mispricing or liquidity constraints on the smaller venue. The market has experienced extreme volatility (1359% realized vol) with a dramatic 34¢ price surge over seven days, yet minimal 24-hour volume of just $9 indicates thin liquidity that may be amplifying price swings and making the current quote unreliable. The 9¢ spread and extraordinarily high "No" implied yield of 326% signal substantial uncertainty around Ohtani's 2026 performance, with the market pricing in significant injury or performance risk over the next 208 days.
Also on kalshi at 58¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x127422dfe382bb2c4a4fbca3ca9ec1278fc1948e8874928508a54c94b00f14ac yes 100