Will the Republican Party win the IL-16 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican probability (88%) for Illinois's 16th congressional district, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $13k open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction behind this pricing. The asymmetric implied yields—24.9% for Yes versus 1338% for No—indicate severe mispricing or a structural liquidity issue, with the No side offering an implausibly high yield that signals few traders are willing to back a Democratic upset despite the 12% probability. With 200 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, this market warrants caution as a thin-liquidity outlier that may not reflect true consensus odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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