Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (93%) that Republicans will retain West Virginia's 2nd congressional district, with a tight 1¢ spread indicating confidence in this outcome. However, the extraordinarily asymmetric implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus 2416.7% for No—reveal severe illiquidity on the No side, with only $26,811 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the No price may be artificially inflated and unreliable. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for market repricing, though the neutral regime and modest 1¢ price movement over seven days suggest current sentiment is relatively stable around Republican dominance in this traditionally safe GOP district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade