Will the Republican Party win the KS-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme skew typical of deep red districts, with Republicans priced at 92¢ reflecting Kansas's 1st district lean, though the 2099% implied yield on the "No" side signals minimal liquidity on the short end—confirmed by zero 24-hour volume despite $17.5M open interest. The 12 Cliff Risk Index and 1050% risk-adjusted yield suggest sharp repricing risk if unexpected political developments emerge before the November 2026 election, though the 200-day timeframe provides substantial runway for sentiment shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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