Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?

The Republican contract at 63¢ shows a stark asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields, with the "No" side offering 310% implied yield versus 107% for "Yes," suggesting the market prices in significant uncertainty despite the Republican lean. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $13,960 open interest and a 4¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin for a seat market this far out, creating potential execution challenges. The 183% realized volatility and 1.78 vol ratio indicate this NY-01 race is experiencing elevated price swings, though the neutral regime and modest 7-day movement (62¢ to 63¢) suggest recent stabilization with 201 days until resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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