Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?

This market has collapsed 67% over seven days to just 10¢, suggesting either reduced geopolitical tensions or a significant shift in market sentiment away from near-term Iranian action against Ras Tanura. The extreme implied yield of 27,437% on the Yes side reflects the asymmetric risk profile typical of tail-event markets, but the thin $231 daily volume and high cliff risk index (9/10) indicate low liquidity could amplify price swings in the final 12 days. With realized volatility at 1,149% and an information arrival rate of 0.9/hour, this market remains highly sensitive to breaking news, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions don't favor either outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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