Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing WA-04 as a heavily favored seat at 82¢, but the market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $20.4k open interest, making this price potentially unreliable. The "No" side offers a striking 829% implied yield versus just 39.9% for "Yes," suggesting severe mispricing or that contrarian bettors see genuine uncertainty despite the lopsided probability. With 201 days to expiration, high realized volatility (89%), and a neutral regime, this market lacks conviction—the thin spread and minimal trading activity warrant caution before treating the 82¢ price as a genuine market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade