Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme volatility (1690% realized vol) with a massive 763% implied yield on the "yes" side, suggesting either very thin order books or genuine uncertainty about Story's nomination prospects in a competitive FL-09 primary.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows extreme volatility (1690% realized vol) with a massive 763% implied yield on the "yes" side, suggesting either very thin order books or genuine uncertainty about Story's nomination prospects in a competitive FL-09 primary. The 15¢ spread and just $1.33 in 24h volume indicate minimal trading activity, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable; the cliff risk index of 3 flags that resolution could hinge on narrow procedural definitions. With 123 days to the August 2026 primary and a vol ratio of 4.71, this market appears to be pricing in significant information arrival (2.3 events/hour) but lacks the depth to be a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x15073e709553c34a801a4169cc8c155f4e7098c68d4e2b593d3676c19023a6fb yes 100