Will the Republican Party win the AL-04 House seat?

The market is pricing AL-04 as heavily Republican-favored at 94¢, reflecting the district's strong GOP lean, though the extreme 2859% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity with only $16,404 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest the market has settled into a stable equilibrium, but the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 indicates potential for sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election as more information emerges about candidate quality and national political conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade