Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be 44 or more?

The "Yes" side offers an extreme 2173% implied yield on a market pricing Republican House retirements at 44+ as only 11% likely, but the zero 24-hour volume and $1.2M open interest suggest this asymmetric payoff reflects illiquidity rather than genuine edge. The 13¢ wide spread and elevated realized volatility (1264%) indicate thin order books and pricing uncertainty, while the recent 2¢ decline over seven days and neutral regime suggest no clear directional momentum despite 136 days to resolution.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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