Will the Democratic Party win the OR-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing at an extreme 8¢ with a staggering 2091.8% implied yield, suggesting either deep undervaluation or a highly illiquid market—the $0 in 24-hour volume and $39.7K open interest indicate minimal trading activity. Oregon's 2nd district is traditionally Republican-leaning, which may justify the low probability, but the massive yield differential and neutral regime score (0.5) warrant caution about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or simply thin liquidity. With 201 days to expiry and a 12 Cliff Risk Index, this market could experience sharp repricing if Democratic recruitment or polling dynamics shift materially in the district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade