Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?

The Republican contract at 6¢ reflects an extremely low probability of flipping Massachusetts's heavily Democratic 4th district, with the No side offering only 11.8% implied yield versus an extraordinary 2,903.9% on the Yes side—a massive asymmetry typical of deep longshot bets. Despite the high theoretical yield, liquidity is thin at just $7.09 in 24-hour volume against $18k open interest, and the recent price movement from 4¢ to 6¢ suggests modest accumulation of Republican optimism, though the cliff risk index of 16 indicates meaningful tail risk. With 197 days to expiration, this market appears to be pricing in an essentially zero probability outcome, making it more of a lottery ticket than a substantive political forecast.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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