EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?

The 14¢ price reflects extremely low conviction with near-zero liquidity ($9,720 open interest, $0 in 24-hour volume), making this market highly susceptible to manipulation or information shocks. The 869% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely unsustainable, suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial risk premium for the binary tail-risk nature of a NATO peacekeeping deployment announcement. With 258 days to expiry, the 793% realized volatility and 6.0 cliff risk index indicate this market experiences sharp, sudden repricing events—typical of geopolitically sensitive contracts with sparse trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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