Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?

The Republican contract at 23¢ reflects a heavily Democratic-favored district, yet the 643.9% implied yield on the Yes side signals acute underpricing relative to the extreme realized volatility of 1048% and a vol ratio of 3.63, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging activity. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $10.7M open interest and a 9¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained despite the large OI, creating potential slippage for meaningful position adjustments. The 7-day price decline from 25¢ to 22¢ combined with a neutral regime and 1.5 info arrivals per hour indicates recent bearish sentiment, though the 201-day timeframe to expiry provides ample room for campaign dynamics to shift these odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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