Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat?

The market is pricing in overwhelming Republican dominance of Mississippi's 3rd district with a 93¢ price, but the extreme 2425.6% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing—the $0 24-hour volume and modest $16,052.97 open interest suggest this contract lacks meaningful price discovery. The 13-point cliff risk index and 1213% risk-adjusted implied yield indicate substantial tail risk, likely reflecting the thin market's inability to accurately price a low-probability Democratic upset rather than genuine uncertainty about the race outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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