Will the Democratic Party win the ID-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2859.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 11.7% on the No side, suggesting the 6¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in Idaho's heavily Republican 1st district. The $17.3M open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume indicates the market is illiquid and potentially stale, with the recent price movement from 4¢ to 6¢ possibly reflecting outdated information rather than fresh conviction. With 200 days to expiration and a notable 16 Cliff Risk Index, traders should be cautious about the extreme yield disparity, which may reflect either genuine Republican dominance in the district or a liquidity-driven mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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