Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. The market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15k open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges.
Analysis
The market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15k open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges. The 669% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 116-day timeframe, indicating either severe mispricing or significant unpriced tail risk around Fazio's candidacy. The 486% realized volatility and 7-cent price decline over seven days warrant caution, as the neutral regime score and 1.96 vol ratio suggest the market may be experiencing information shocks without corresponding volume to validate price discovery.
Also on kalshi at 31¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x198cd5dc8827b5e577ef79657425b41bf68fc7369283c885fd2697b5723846e4 yes 100