Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

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64¢
Bid/Ask 63/65¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $126.17·OI $26,640.788·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining
0x19d2ff72e389d190c183e6b114817301d29eba651d67d75a38ee201a05188fd9
7-day price28 snapshots · 3 regime
69¢64¢ current
Apr 863¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 105.2%
IY (No) 332.5%
Adj IY 166%
CRI 2
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)105.2%
IY (No)332.5%
Adj IY166%
CRI2

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:26:00 PM
Observability lowEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x19d2ff72e389d190c183e6b114817301d29eba651d67d75a38ee201a05188fd9 yes 100

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