Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Flávio Bolsonaro's 40¢ price reflects modest odds despite an exceptionally high 322% implied yield on YES positions, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-adjusted return or potential market inefficiency. The 196% realized volatility and 1.10 vol ratio indicate substantial price swings, yet the market has remained flat over seven days (39¢ to 40¢) with moderate liquidity ($128k open interest, $28k daily volume), creating potential opportunity if new information arrives at the current 0.7 events per hour rate. With 170 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market appears to be pricing in considerable uncertainty about Bolsonaro's viability as a candidate, possibly reflecting legal or political obstacles to his candidacy.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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