Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?

This market reflects extremely high confidence in Republican retention of Kansas's 4th congressional district, with the 87¢ price implying an 87% win probability, yet the asymmetric implied yields (27.2% for Yes vs. 1217.4% for No) reveal severe illiquidity on the bearish side with only $17,814 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 609% risk-adjusted yield and elevated cliff risk index of 7 suggest this market may be mispriced or suffering from thin liquidity rather than representing genuine market consensus, particularly given that the race remains over 200 days from resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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