Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $4,407 open interest, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable despite a substantial 38% seven-day rally from 31¢.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $4,407 open interest, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable despite a substantial 38% seven-day rally from 31¢. The astronomical implied yields (1,516% for Yes, 863% for No) and 432% realized volatility reflect the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, while the 18¢ spread represents a massive 42% bid-ask gap. With 32 days to the May 2026 primary and a cliff risk index of 1, this market is too illiquid to serve as a reliable probability estimate for Smith's nomination odds.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1b0943ccb9d5eb36f9961efb6c4f0c4f244b46a26215f176706d4bae2caf19bf yes 100